Props board

I’m playing the workload as much as the matchup. Hughes has topped 15 outs in only three of his eight starts and just once in his last five. Five complete innings still cashes this under.

His 17 earned runs over the last 13 innings and 9.47 road ERA create plenty of risk for an early hook. Colorado’s primary leverage arms also avoided Wednesday’s blowout, so there is little reason to stretch Hughes if he encounters one difficult inning.

Irvin has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his five starts since returning to the rotation. He carries a 7.86 ERA at Nationals Park, while his 45% hard-hit rate and 11.7% barrel rate say the damage has been earned.

His four-seamer and sinker account for nearly half his pitches, and those offerings have allowed .473 and .491 xwOBA marks. Hunter Goodman sitting removes a major bat, but Colorado still owns a .758 OPS against right-handed pitching. Three earned runs is a reachable number.

Rogers has completed six innings in seven of his last eight starts, including five of his last six. He is working on five days’ rest and has issued only four walks across his last three outings, which gives him a clean path to efficiency against a St.

Louis lineup missing several regulars. Baltimore also used five relievers Wednesday, creating extra incentive to let Rogers handle the sixth if his pitch count permits.

I’m laying the price on his recent workload consistency.

Walker is the Cardinal I want against Rogers. He owns a .293 average and .930 OPS against left-handed pitching, while 13 of the 14 home runs Rogers has allowed have come against right-handed hitters. Walker is also batting .318 with a .916 OPS in August and has cleared this line in eight of his last 15. Hitting third guarantees him the best combination of plate appearances and RBI traffic, and the plus-money price lets a double or two hits do the job.

Cole has cleared this number in six of his last eight starts, including 22 strikeouts against only three walks across his last three. His 96.8 mph four-seamer and slider give him two reliable finishing pitches against a Houston lineup featuring six hitters with strikeout rates above 20%. With Cole regularly completing six innings, I like him to reach six strikeouts at this price.

Garcia has produced seven hits, five runs and five RBIs through the first two games of this series. The form extends beyond those games: he is 9-for-21 with three homers over the last week and owns a .918 OPS against right-handed pitching. Batting third behind two capable table-setters gives one hit a strong chance to pair with either a run or an RBI, and Houston's struggling bullpen preserves the matchup advantage after Wesneski exits.

Cameron has allowed four earned runs across his last 19.2 innings and owns a 1.63 ERA in August. Toronto’s eight right-handed bats do not scare me here: Cameron has limited righties to a .648 OPS, while the Blue Jays have a .641 OPS against left-handed pitching. He has stayed under this line in five of his last eight starts, and Kansas City’s rested bullpen is positioned to strand anything he leaves behind.

Jensen has drawn a walk in nine of his last 15 games and already has two in this series. Arrighetti has issued 52 walks in 91.1 innings, including 12 across his last three starts, and he is expected to work on a restricted pitch count. Toronto’s relievers have also issued six walks in 11 innings during the first two games. Batting leadoff should give Jensen enough chances to cash this.

I’m taking plus money on the result that best fits Vaughn’s profile. He has singled in 11 of his last 15 games and owns a .360 average with a 1.041 OPS against left-handed pitching. Sean Manaea has allowed right-handed hitters a .266 average and .837 OPS, with his sinker and cutter getting hit especially hard. Vaughn bats cleanup and should receive four opportunities to put one through the infield.

Morel has hit .133 with a .398 OPS against right-handed pitching, struck out 30 times in 76 at-bats overall and gone 0-for-4 in this series. Now he draws Jacob Misiorowski, who has held right-handed batters to a .196 average while producing elite whiff rates with both his 100.6 mph fastball and 91.9 mph slider. Batting eighth also creates a reasonable chance Morel receives only three at-bats.

Last night's walk-off was a great moment, but I am not treating one swing as a turnaround. It was Kim's first hit since June 3 and ended an 0-for-27 drought. He enters tonight hitting .078 with a .174 on-base percentage and bats ninth against Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Yamamoto owns a 0.90 WHIP, has held right-handed hitters to a .195 average and carries a 1.99 road ERA. Kim likely gets only three trips to the plate unless Atlanta turns the lineup over repeatedly, making plus production in any of the three categories difficult.

I’m betting Roupp’s command problems continue. He has issued 12 walks in his last 16.1 innings and exceeded this line in six of his last eight starts. His sinker generates only an 18.0% chase rate, making it difficult to steal quick outs when his location slips.

Arizona compounds that problem with Nootbaar, Carroll, Moreno and Perdomo at the top of the order. All four will take a walk, and the Diamondbacks average 3.36 per game. Roupp has reached three walks in each of his last five starts, and I still see value at -124.

Devers gets the part of Jose Cabrera’s arsenal I want to attack. Cabrera’s four-seam fastball has allowed a .508 xwOBA, while his cutter sits at .360; together, those pitches account for more than half of his offerings. Neither has produced a strong whiff rate.

Devers owns a .947 OPS with 24 homers against right-handed pitching. He has four homers in his last seven games, five in his last 15 and has cleared 1.5 total bases in eight of those 15. I don’t need another homer at this number—an extra-base hit or two singles cashes the plus-money ticket.